Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.080969 22.198998 25.612059 29.618110 34.183774 39.217331 45.179063
2024-10-13 14.541141 18.960028 24.300476 31.192924 39.811769 50.189094 63.580946
2024-10-20 11.020455 15.760284 21.961832 30.587348 42.176608 57.098551 77.634974
2024-10-27 8.409471 13.030242 19.502992 29.095178 42.780665 61.403893 88.414247
2024-11-03 7.491701 12.401870 19.675003 31.020602 48.003454 72.147037 108.632236
2024-11-10 6.913405 12.133812 20.255073 33.501550 54.166261 84.661547 132.376721
2024-11-17 5.985620 11.128773 19.523327 33.821186 57.030353 92.522316 149.916714
2024-11-24 5.086207 10.001749 18.405669 33.325292 58.475211 98.247719 164.580169
2024-12-01 4.268989 8.869136 17.097402 32.302146 58.876724 102.265878 176.773295
2024-12-08 3.726438 8.146401 16.388196 32.185386 60.715600 108.656413 193.159177
2024-12-15 3.310881 7.596300 15.907042 32.391547 63.084711 116.048804 211.675883
2024-12-22 2.749223 6.647993 14.536502 30.769345 61.991853 117.406923 220.024294
2024-12-29 2.512312 6.380408 14.520821 31.848547 66.181575 128.695585 247.139187
2025-01-05 2.339354 6.233127 14.747137 33.472253 71.646703 142.872333 280.788361
2025-01-12 1.998853 5.626337 13.910602 32.815047 72.606226 148.895190 300.222009
2025-01-19 1.646467 4.911289 12.715564 31.222229 71.484461 150.864409 312.254401
2025-01-26 1.580125 4.917808 13.165498 33.273873 78.070065 168.168430 354.589232
2025-02-02 1.549991 5.015834 13.843917 35.916836 86.154692 189.028697 405.256778
2025-02-09 1.394778 4.731302 13.545399 36.257250 89.282837 200.197263 437.687905
2025-02-16 1.217457 4.341725 12.918759 35.729074 90.417799 207.361074 462.605346
2025-02-23 1.040790 3.910809 12.110597 34.639182 90.141800 211.522243 481.654827
2025-03-02 0.925525 3.647136 11.708650 34.514791 92.083350 220.522308 511.331223
2025-03-09 0.836069 3.447742 11.453173 34.734423 94.858020 231.525018 545.968537